07-06-2017 | Estofex | m.b.t. 08-06-2017 t/m 09-06-2017
A level 1 was issued for northern Spain to France, Benelux countries mainly for large or very large hail and severe wind gusts.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 08 Jun 2017 06:00 to Fri 09 Jun 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 07 Jun 2017 22:14
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for northern Spain to France, Benelux countries mainly for large or very large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
An amplified ridge over eastern Europe connected to a blocking high over Finland will remain quasi-stationary. Upstream, the European trough splits, with its northern part lifting into Scandinavia and its southern vort-max forming a cut-off low that interacts with another closed low currently over the Ionian Sea. Both features will form a broader trough from Romania to the Adriatic region late in the period. Further upstream, the west-European ridge is pushed east ahead of a new trough entering western Europe. The evolving south-westerly flow causes strong warm air advection from Iberia towards France and south-western Germany. Cold air advection affects the Balkans and central and southern Mediterranean behind a cold front that enters the Black Sea region and western Russia.
DISCUSSION
Northern Spain to France, Benelux countries
Ahead of the approaching upper-level trough, quite strong warm air advection is expected, and large-scale ascent can be suggested. Given strong south-westerly upper-level winds, moderate to strong deep-layer vertical wind shear will evolve. An elevated mixed-layer advects north-east and will provide steep lapse rates. Main uncertainty is low-level moisture so that initiation of storms is somewhat questionable. However, models indicate increasing moisture during the day and CAPE could develop.
Capping inversion is expected to weaken due to lift ahead of the approaching trough and associated cold front. Current thinking is that a couple of isolated storms form that evolve into supercells given favorable vertical wind shear. Large or very large hail is possible with these storms. Quite large cold pool potential can result in outflow dominant storms that form clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts while spreading north-east into northern France and Benelux ahead and along the cold front.
(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Hagel(-schade) | Onweer/blikseminslag | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)