Storm Forecast Valid: Sun 26 Jul 2026 06:00 to Mon 27 Jul 2026 06:00 UTC
25-07-2026 | Estofex | m.b.t. 26-07-2026 t/m 27-07-2026
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Netherlands, Belgium into N/CNTRL Germany mainly for a few gusts and an isolated tornado risk.
Storm Forecast Valid: Sun 26 Jul 2026 06:00 to Mon 27 Jul 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 25 Jul 2026 08:29
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Netherlands, Belgium into N/CNTRL Germany mainly for a few gusts and an isolated tornado risk.
SYNOPSIS
The long-lived blocked wave regime over SW into S-CNTRL Europe breaks apart as the formerly barotropic ridge dissolves over/south of Sicily. In the meantime, the stationary upper low W of Iberia shifts E while de-amplifying into a progressive lower amplitude wave with a persistent positive tilt. This wave starts to cut-off from the frontal zone somewhere W of the Tyrrhenian Sea with a more uncertain track more to the S, whereas parts of this energy drift E towards the Balkans as a sharp short-wave trough.
A steering vortex W of Norway takes the frontal zone with a wave into CNTRL Europe, accompanied by a brisk westerly flow regime, whereas a longwave trough over E Europe starts to fill and lift E/NE towards Russia.
This rather complex pattern gets accompanied by eastward progressing fronts over NW into CNTRL Europe and a N-ward moving and intensifying vortex (with cold/warm fronts) over W Russia, all serving as foci for thunderstorm development.
DISCUSSION
... The Netherlands, Belgium into N/CNTRL Germany but also S Germany to Austria ...
A progressive low-amplitude wave approaches the area of interest (Netherlands/Belgium to N/CNTRL Germany) beyond noon while interacting with a plume of better BL moisture. Steepening of the H8-H5 layer lapse rates assists in some low-end 0-4 km CAPE (200-600 J/kg), which spreads E into N/CNTRL Germany. Forecast hodographs reveal long/curved signatures admits 20-25 m/s DLS and 100-150 J/kg SRH3. In addition, the left exit region of a strong upper jet approaches the area and adds improving upper divergence.
Expect increasing thunderstorm coverage from the late afternoon into the overnight hours and lines of organized shallow convection race E/SE. NWP gust signals (also in EPS data) remain reluctant, probably due to moist profiles and weak (D)CAPE. However, strong gusts and graupel will be a risk. In addition, an isolated tornado is possible in this low LCL and improving CAPE3 setup. A broad level 1 was added for this event, where diurnal cycle and some gust imprints in NWP guidance show somewhat better chances for near surface based activity with an isolated tornado risk (combined with a spotty heavy rain risk with merging updrafts). Overall the severe coverage could stay spotty.
Over S Germany into Austria, 400-800 J/kg MUCAPE and weak shear result in scattered slow moving thunderstorms with isolated heavy rain. A level 1 upgrade was performed for parts of Austria, where slow moving and clustering convection poses an isolated heavy rain risk.
(Alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Onweer/blikseminslag | Tornado/hoosverschijnsel(en) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)