15-06-2007 | Estofex | m.b.t. 16-06-2007 t/m 17-06-2007
Level-1 over o.a. uiterst zuid-NL i.v.m kans op tornado's.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Jun 2007 06:00 to Sun 17 Jun 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 15 Jun 2007 14:17
Forecaster: DAHL
SYNOPSIS
Rather intense upper low will move from the British Isles across the North Sea, while next/upstream Atlantic upper trough will reach the Iberian Peninsula late in the period. Weak surface lows will accompany these features while largely quiescent conditions persist over the rest of Europe.
DISCUSSION
... Belgium ... extreme N France ...
A small overlap of 10 m/s LLS and CAPE is simulated over N France and S Benelux in the late afternoon. It seems that the thermodynamic profiles will essentially be uncapped and quite moist, so that a slight chance for brief tornadoes seems to exist. However, minimal deep-layer shear should preclude long-lived mesocyclones and a more substantial severe weather threat.
Tornado/hoosverschijnsel(en) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen