30-05-2018 | Estofex | m.b.t. 31-05-2018 t/m 01-06-2018
A level 1 was issued across the southern British Isles, Benelux, most of Germany, Czech Republic, northern and western Balkans, and Italy mainly for excessive precipitation.Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 31 May 2018 06:00 to Fri 01 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 30 May 2018 22:10
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued across north-eastern France into southern Germany and parts of Switzerland and Austria for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent large or very large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued across the southern British Isles, Benelux, most of Germany, Czech Republic, northern and western Balkans, and Italy mainly for excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
An ill-defined mid-level omega controls the mid-level flow. Troughs are centred west of the Bay of Biscay and over Turkey. Downstream of the omega ridge across southern Scandinavia, an intense trough amplifies into south-western Russia. Whereas arctic air masses advect into Russia in the wake of this trough, warm air remains over large portions of Europe. This warm air is associated with rich low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg in the afternoon. Widespread storms are forecast within the warm air. Large-scale lift will support initiation from the southern British Isles towards northern Italy due to an elongated vort-maximum slowly moving north-east. At low-levels, a convergence zone evolves below the mid-level vort-max that separates the warm air from cooler maritime air masses across western Europe.
DISCUSSION
Southern British Isles, Benelux, most of Germany, Czech Republic, northern and western Balkans, Italy
In a weakly-sheared but unstable environment, widespread storms are forecast during the day. Main threat is excessive precipitation and local flash floods, but stronger pulse storms can also produce large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will gradually weaken after sunset.
(klik hier voor de forecast op de Estofex-site, red.)
Onweer/blikseminslag | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wateroverlast/(zware) neerslag