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Storm Forecast Valid: Wed 09 Oct 2019 06:00 to Thu 10 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC

08-10-2019 18:17 - Estofex - m.b.t. 09-10-2019 t/m 10-10-2019

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 09 Oct 2019 06:00 to Thu 10 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 08 Oct 2019 18:17
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across parts northern France and southern Belgium mainly for marginally severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for eastern Sicily mainly for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An active weather pattern prevails over the northern half of Europe with a series of fast moving troughs. A pronounced trough is forecast to progress across northern France into Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic during the forecast period. Ahead of the trough, NWP simulates an overlap of lapse rates exceeding 6.5 K/km and modest lower tropospheric moisture, yielding marginal CAPE values. Over northern France and southern Belgium, long and straight hodographs highlight potential for some low-topped splitting cells or small line segments. These may be capable of marginally severe gusts as 850 hPa flow reaches around 20 m/s. While 0-1 km bulk shear will exceed 10 m/s and cloud bases should stay under 1 km, tornado threat will be limited by the lack of streamwise vorticity in the lowest hundreds of m.

Towards south, a quasi-stationary low east of Tunisia has advected abundant lower tropospheric moisture towards southeastern Italy. Particularly along the eastern coastlines of Sicily, forecast soundings point to the enhanced threat of excessive rainfall should storms linger over the area for prolonged time.

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