25-08-2020 21:31 | Estofex | m.b.t. 26-08-2020 t/m 27-08-2020
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 26 Aug 2020 06:00 to Thu 27 Aug 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 25 Aug 2020 21:31
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued across E Poland, SW Belarus and NW Ukraine mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes and to the lesser extent for large hail.
A level 1 was issued across Poland, SW Belarus and NW Ukraine mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes and to the lesser extent for large hail.
A level 1 was issued across N Holland and N Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
Strong zonal flow regime dominates weather across much of W and Central Europe. A fast-moving short-wave trough is forecast to translate rapidly from NW Germany into Poland and Belarus. Ahead of the trough, a deep low pressure system will also move E, with its center ending over the Baltic States by Thursday morning. Associated with the low will be a cold front that is forecast to cross Poland, Czech Republic, northern Austria, Slovakia and NW Ukraine during the forecast period. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast along the front. Further storms are forecast in polar maritime airmass over the Northern Sea and underneath a core of mid-tropospheric low over N Scandinavia.
DISCUSSION
... N Holland, N Germany ...
Marginal CAPE with relatively warm EL is simulated over the area with isolated to scattered storms forming in the morning hours, spreading east. While updrafts will stay relatively weak and storms low-topped, strong lower tropospheric flow, reaching around 20 m/s at 850 hPa flow may allow for a few marginally severe wind gusts. While LLS around 10 m/s combined with low LCLs would also suggest enhanced tornado threat, straight hodographs with lack of streamwise vorticity will act as a limiting factor.
(alleen de voor NL en direct aangrenzende gebieden tekstdelen zijn overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Tornado/hoosverschijnsel(en) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)
