20-07-2007 12:02 | ESSL/Estofex | m.b.t. 20-07-2007 t/m 21-07-2007
Valid: Fri 20 Jul 2007 12:00 to Sat 21 Jul 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 20 Jul 2007 12:02
Refer to convective forecast...
W Germany, E Benelux...
A large MCS has developed over France and is currently moving northward over the E Benelux and W Germany while causing strong gusts, generally remaining below 25 m/s. In its wake, a rather strong SSWly flow is expected.
Surface winds appear to back to the southeast in response to forcing ahead of the the main mid/upper-level trough that should be over Belgium at around 18 UTC. As a result, the flow will likely be rather helical in a location where insolation and upward vertical motion should be able to create significant CAPE.
Some of the storms initiating over N-central France will therefore likely manage to deveop into supercells with a relatively high tornadic threat. Clustering into a second linear convective system is however, possible as well given the strong forcing, which should reduce the threat of tornadoes. Nevertheless, conditions do look favourable enough to warrant a level 2, as tornadoes exceeding F1 intensity cannot be excluded. Otherwise, the supercells will likely produce some large hail and severe gusts in places.
(alleen de voor NL relevante tekstdelen zijn weergegeven, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)