29-07-2017 01:27 | Estofex | m.b.t. 29-07-2017 t/m 30-07-2017
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 29 Jul 2017 06:00 to Sun 30 Jul 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 29 Jul 2017 01:27
Forecaster: TASZAREK
A level 2 was issued for parts of W Russia mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for W Russia, E Belarus and N Ukraine mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for N Italy and Alps mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for N France, Benelux and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for NE Spain and SW France mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
Widespread thunderstorm activity with a potential of producing all kinds of severe weather is expected over E Europe. The highest threat for surface-based supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes concerns late afternoon hours and area marked by level 2 over W Russia. Storms with a large hail, heavy rain and severe wind potential will be possible over Alpine area in the afternoon hours. Late and uncertain convective development with a possible supercell and multicell clusters is plausible over NE Spain/SW France. Low-topped storms with severe wind potential and under strong synoptic-scale lift are expected to develop in the late evening over N France and move to Benelux during nighttime.
DISCUSSION
...NW Europe...
Almost stationary large low covers British Isles. On its southern flank a jet streak stretches from Atlantic, through N France, S British Isles, Benelux and up to N Germany. A passage of the shortwave trough with high kinematics and marginal instability is expected by NWP models over N France and Benelux in the evening and nighttime hours. In the environment of high wind shear, small instability and decent QG-lift, a low-topped convection capable of producing severe wind gusts is predicted to develop in the late afternoon hours over N France and move NEwardly to Benelux and NW Germany in the evening and nighttime hours. Given very dynamic wind field and linear forcing, a development of a squall line with bowing segments and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out.
(Alleen de voor NL en direct aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)
