18-08-2023 22:04 | Estofex | m.b.t. 19-08-2023 t/m 20-08-2023
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Aug 2023 06:00 to Sun 20 Aug 2023 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Aug 2023 22:04
Forecaster: PUCIK/KUZMENKO
A level 1 was issued across N Germany and Denmark mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued across Estonia, Latvia and W Russia mainly for excessive rainfall and large hail.
A level 1 was issued across N Slovakia and Poland mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser extent for large hail.
A level 1 was issued across S Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania mainly for excessive rainfall and large hail.
SYNOPSIS
A complex synoptic-scale setup is forecast across Europe. At mid to upper troposphere, southwesterly flow will have established across France and the UK in between of a ridge over Iberia and a low over the northern UK. A shallow low will be located over western Balkans and a subtle short-wave is forecast to move from Finalnd towards Estonia and W Russia in the evening hours. Closer to the surface, a frontal system is forecast to cross the Northern Sea into Denmark and Sweden. A stalling frontal boundary will remain across Estonia / N Latvia and Russia.
... N Germany, Denmark ...
A cold front is forecast to cross the area in the evening hours. Ahead of it, moist lower troposphere is forecast, but mid-tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor, yielding mostly skinny CAPE profiles, including stable layer in mid-troposphere according to some models. CAPE/shear overlap will be around the S fringe of the area and to the S of it. However, majority of models don't show any storms here, exception being ECMWF. Convection allowing models show almost no storms even over extreme N Germany. Hodographs are forecast to be mostly linear with 0-3 km bulk shear around 15 m/s across Germany, suggesting some potential for isolated severe wind gusts in case a squall line forms. Over Denmark, curved hodographs are forecast with 0-1 km bulk shear around 10 m/s and low LCLs, elevating the tornado threat. However it's uncertain whether the storms will be surface based here.
(alleen de voor NL en direct aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Tornado/hoosverschijnsel(en) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)
