02-08-2023 12:14 | Estofex | m.b.t. 02-08-2023
Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 02 Aug 2023 12:00 to Wed 02 Aug 2023 15:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 02 Aug 2023 12:14
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
+ + + Risk of tornadoes and severe wind gusts increasing across West-central Germany and extreme Southeast Netherlands + + +
In the left exit region of the intense jet streak, a line of low-topped storms has developed across southeast Netherlands, east Belgium and the Champagne region in France. Under the influence of strong shear in the 0-3 km layer, these storms are expected to organize into low-topped supercells and bow-shaped segments and intensify as they move eastward.
The consensus of NWP models suggests that low-level hodographs in the air-mass ahead of the storms will become more favorable for low-level rotation during the coming hours, boasting values of 150 to 250 m2/s2 of storm-relatvie helicity in the 0-1 km layer. Surface winds backed to south or south-southeast head of the storms confirm this. As a result, a risk of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and of damaging winds will develop during the coming hours. The highest risk appears to be in the central indicated area. In addition to the wind risk, marginally large hail of or 3 cm diameter may develop as well. The severe storm risk will likely persist beyond 15 UTC and move eastward.
Hagel(-schade) | Tornado/hoosverschijnsel(en) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)
