24-07-2023 00:42 | Estofex | m.b.t. 24-07-2023 t/m 25-07-2023
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 24 Jul 2023 06:00 to Tue 25 Jul 2023 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 24 Jul 2023 00:42
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
A level 3 was issued across Austria, Northwest Hungary, and western Slovakia mainly for damaging winds and very large hail, and to a lesser extent for very heavy rainfall.
A level 3 was issued across northern Italy, northern Slovenia, and extreme southern Austria for very large to giant hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, and to a lesser extent for very heavy rainfall.
A level 2 was issued across a larger area surrounding the level 3 for all hazards, particularly large hail, and severe wind.
A level 1 was issued across a large part of Europe, for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, and heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across parts of eastern Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, primarily for large hail.
SYNOPSIS
At the anticyclonically curved northern edge of a deep elevated mixed layer across the Central Mediterranean region, the mid-/upper-level flow is strong. A shortwave trough with an axis from southern Britain to NW Spain slowly translates eastward and tightens the height gradient a little further, creating very strong shear. Subtle impulses for upward motion traveling along the edge will be the focus for a few rounds of storms, that in combination with moderate to very high CAPE will likely produce widespread severe or extremely severe weather including all convective hazards: damaging winds, very large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION
Benelux, Northeast France, North Germany, Northwest Poland...
As some 500 - 1000 J/kg of CAPE should develop within a fairly strongly sheared flow (20 - 25 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear), convective storms that evolve in this weakly capped environment should organize into small supercells or lines. Given the high buoyancy close to the lifted condensation level that is predicted and fair low-level shear, a few short-lived tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, some very local severe wind gusts may also evolve as well as isolated marginally severe hail (2-3 cm).
(alleen de voor NL en direct aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen zijn overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Hagel(-schade) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wateroverlast/(zware) neerslag | Wind/storm (-schade)
