03-05-2012 22:14 | Estofex | m.b.t. 04-05-2012 t/m 05-05-2012
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 04 May 2012 06:00 to Sat 05 May 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 May 2012 22:14
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for parts of E-Europe mainly for isolated large hail/strong to severe wind gusts. A sporadic tornado event can't be ruled out.
A level 1 was issued for parts of NE France, Belgium, Luxembourg and far W/NW-Germany mainly for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for parts of SW/S France and far N/NE Spain mainly for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for NE Algeria and N Tunisia mainly for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
An extensive cyclonic vortex placed over N-Europe and an upper low over the Bay of Biscay both avouch the presence of a warm and unstable air mass for most of Europe with scattered to widespread thunderstorms likely. Cold and stable conditions exist over far N-Europe.
DISCUSSION
... France, Belgium, Luxembourg and NW-Germany ...
Downstream of an upper low atop the Bay of Biscay, some BL moisture recovery occurs over France beneath cool mid-levels. Right now, best LL moisture probably will be found along and just south of a stationary front, which is situated over N-France. A weak occlusion also approaches from the west during the daytime hours and assists in somewhat enhanced LL moisture advection. Therefore a level 1 was issued for that area, as 15 m/s DLS overlap with modest MLAPE of 500-800 J/kg. Strong wind gusts and isolated large hail are forecast. Sideward MCS storm motion vectors forecast along that boundary with 700 hPa winds increasing to 20 m/s over far W/NW Germany point to an augmented chance for small eastward moving lines of thunderstorms with a locally enhanced strong wind gust risk. Therefore the level 1 was expanded all the way to NW Germany, despite decreasing CAPE. Storms gradually decay after sunset.
(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen
