24-04-2014 22:07 | Estofex | m.b.t. 25-04-2014 t/m 26-04-2014
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 25 Apr 2014 06:00 to Sat 26 Apr 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Apr 2014 22:07
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for Belgium, the Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for an isolated large hail event. A local excessive rain event is forecast.
A level 1 was issued for Hungary, SE Austria, Slovenia and Croatia mainly for excessive rain.
A level 1 was issued for NW-Turkey mainly for large hail and a few severe downburst events.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the W-Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.
SYNOPSIS
Split flow / blocking pattern continues over Europe. A belt of strong westerlies extends from the Iberian Peninsula to North Africa to Turkey. Numerous impulses are embedded in this flow and affect the Mediterranean. The strongest feature will be a trough, which chokes itself off over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean and drifts slowly to the east. Central Europe still resides beneath weak mid-level geopotential height gradients and another round of widespread thunderstorm development is forecast.
DISCUSSION
... SE-UK and the SW North Sea ...
Complex forecast in store, as area of interest resides between a SE-ward moving upper low and a rapidly strengthening depression SW of Ireland. Strongest synoptic lift is forecast before noon. That's the time, where some models push the relicts of dying clusters from the previous night towards SE-UK. Rain with embedded thunderstorms is forecast. As synoptic lift exits to the N around noon, some clearing can take place over SE-UK, where BL dewpoints exceed 10 °C beneath 7 K/km mid-layer lapse rates. This should assist in MLCAPE of 500-800 J/kg.
Initiation probably awaits a northward moving surface trough, which pushes a weak front to the NE towards Belgium and the E-UK. CI is forecast along a line Le Havre - Reims (France) and to the north around noon. 10-15 m/s DLS may support an isolated large hail threat over SE UK with more discrete storms. Storms tend to grow upscale betimes and a cluster of thunderstorms spreads to the N/NW. Strong wind gusts and heavy rain will be the main hazard. After sunset, the activity becomes more elevated with a decreasing severe risk over the W-North Sea and CNTRL-UK.
(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende streken relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast.)
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen
