26-07-2019 20:51 | Estofex | m.b.t. 27-07-2019 t/m 28-07-2019
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 27 Jul 2019 06:00 to Sun 28 Jul 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 26 Jul 2019 20:51
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued across W Italy coastline and N Italy mainly for excessive rainfall, large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued in a belt from NE Spain, through SE France, parts of BENELUX, S Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary and Slovenia mainly for excessive rainfall, large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for NW Belarus and Lithuania mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
Synoptic-scale pattern is undergoing a major shift during this period with a ridge over Scandinavia being cut off by a low centered over Poland and a short-wave trough that will move from the Bay of Biscay towards N Italy by the end of the forecast period. Closer to the surface, cyclogenesis is simulated over Netherlands and a wavy frontal boundary will run from BENELUX through E France into N Spain.
Ahead of the frontal boundary, warm sector will be characterised by abundant lower tropospheric moisture and mid-tropospheric lapse rates of around 6.5 K/km. Widespread thunderstorm activity is forecast in the uncapped and moderately to strongly unstable airmass with considerable severe weather risk, especially over parts of Italy.
DISCUSSION
... BENELUX, W Germany E France, NW Italy...
Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to initiate during the day in uncapped airmass with low LFCs. While weak vertical wind shear will preclude well organised storms, forecast profiles suggest high precipitation efficiency in the environment of high RH throught the deep layer of troposphere, low LCLs and significant warm cloud depth. Excessive precipitation will be primary concern and the threat seems to be elevated especially over Belgium / S Netherlands along the stalling boundary and over the Alps, where numerous rounds of storms will be possible.
(alleen de voor NL en omliggend relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast.)
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen
