10-06-2019 04:10 | Estofex | m.b.t. 10-06-2019
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 10 Jun 2019 06:00 to Tue 11 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 10 Jun 2019 04:10
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for Belgium, Netherlands, NW Germany and E UK mainly for isolated excessive rainfall.
SYNOPSIS
A potent mid-level low is centered on the English Channel region with strong southwesterly flow extending across SW to N-CNTRL Europe, and along with it a streak of the Saharan Air Layer with steep lapse rates. At the surface level, the low has three cores, one Genua, an eastern Germany and a Benelux core. Combined with the upper flow, strong vertical shear (15-20 m/s 0-6 km and effective shear) and storm-relative helicity (200-500 m2/s2, in most places 250-350) occur where easterly backed winds occur on the north and west sides of these cores.
DISCUSSION
...Belgium/Netherlands/E UK...
Benelux area has decent shear and weakish CAPE, but hail growth may be impeded by poor mid level lapse rates. Strong low level moisture transport vectors to the north of the low into convergence zones predicted by GFS roughly over SW Netherlands with weak mid level flow could produce rather stationary cells with high rain output, also low level curved hodographs and stronger upper flow create possibilities for tornadoes.
(alleen de voor Nederland en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen zijn overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen
