12-01-2019 21:09 | Estofex | m.b.t. 13-01-2019 t/m 14-01-2019
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 13 Jan 2019 06:00 to Mon 14 Jan 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Jan 2019 21:09
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued across most of Germany and Benelux mainly for severe wind gusts. A low-end tornado risk exists.
SYNOPSIS
The blocking pattern persists with a deep/warm anticyclone over the far E Atlantic and numerous digging troughs to its east, which affect most of N/CNTRL and E-Europe. Overall advective regime of rather dry and cold air suppresses thunderstorms over most parts of Europe. Temporal intrusions of more humid air from the Atlantic and some offshore areas however could see adequate CAPE for a few thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION
... Parts of Germany and Benelux ...
A cold front passage is anticipated beyond noon over most of Germany/Benelux within the left exit region of a 50 m/s mid-level speed max. Cross sections however reveal an ill-defined looking low-tropospheric front with a weak/smooth wind shift signature and limited forcing. Therefore confidence in an organized convective line is low despite some CAMs indicating at least short/broken line segments. The weak thermal gradient also causes LL directional shear to remain modest next to the front, although slight cell track deviation from the mean wind could boost LL shear/helicity substantially given the strong environmental speed shear (in a low LCL environment). Hence an isolated tornado risk can't be discounted although the main hazard will be numerous severe wind gusts with 25 m/s 850 hPa background flow.
We kept this level 1 surrounded by a low prob. lightning area, as forecast profiles show only very slim CAPE in the graupel region. Due to the missing LL forcing the level 1 had to be expanded over a vast area to account for the wind gust risk with any short-lived electrified convection, probably scattered over a broad area.
(alleen de voor NL relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen
