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Storm Forecast Valid: Tue 13 Aug 2019 06:00 to Wed 14 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC

12-08-2019 20:53 - Estofex - m.b.t. 13-08-2019 t/m 14-08-2019

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 13 Aug 2019 06:00 to Wed 14 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 12 Aug 2019 20:53
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 2 was issued for N Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus and parts of Russia for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rainfall and tornadoes. 

A level 1 surrounds the level-2 area and additionally covers S Poland, and it was issued for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for Finland and Estonia mainly for large hail and severe convective wind gusts. 

A level 1 was issued for SE Spain and Algeria for large hail and severe wind gusts. 

A level 1 was issued of parts of N Germany, the Netherlands and NE Belgium for large hail and severe convective wind gusts. 

SYNOPSIS

A deep trough is crossing Central Europe and a strong baroclinic zone has formed over a large part of Central and Eastern Europe. Ahead of this trough, a plume of moist and warm air masses extends from Italy towards Russia, where we expect severe thunderstorms on Tue 13/08 and the early morning of Wed 14/08. In the cold sector of the trough, near the core of the cold mid-level air mass, some thunderstorms may also pose a threat near the coasts of the North Sea. Finally, another interesting spot will be the western parts of the Mediterranean, where locally enhanced thermodynamic ingredients will result in a few strong thunderstorms. 

DISCUSSION

.... N Germany, the Netherlands and NE Belgium ....

The cold air masses near the core of the trough will be enhanced with moisture over the North Sea and combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a few hundreds of CAPE. Large hail is low but still possible, as well as local convective wind gusts.

(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen zijn overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)

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