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Mesoscale Discussion Valid: Sun 29 Sep 2019 15:00 to Sun 29 Sep 2019 21:00 UTC

29-09-2019 16:13 - Estofex - m.b.t. 29-09-2019 | Open artikel

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 29 Sep 2019 15:00 to Sun 29 Sep 2019 21:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Sep 2019 14:13
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

DISCUSSION

MD area...

A shortwave trough over the British Isles is moving eastward. Ahead of the trough, strong quasi-geostrophic forcing for upward motion is expected to affect far northern France, southern Benelux, and west-Central Germany. In response, convective storms are expected to affect these areas this afternoon and evening, since the air-mass ahead of the trough is already approximately neutrally stratified. Some 500 J/kg of CAPE could locally develop.

Of concern is the vertical wind profile, that exhibits strong low-level shear (15-20 m/s in the 0-1 km layer) and some 200-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, that will help promote low-level rotation in any storms. Therefore, some tornado risk will exist over the indicated area. In addition, convectively-enhanced severe winds gusts are likely, in particular if small bowing segments develop. After 21 UTC, the risk may extend east of the indicated area.

KNMI Guidance en weerkaartjes

29-09-2019 06:08 - KNMI - m.b.t. 29-09-2019 t/m 30-09-2019 | Open artikel

Guidance modelbeoordeling voor Nederland, de Nederlandse kustwateren en de Noordzee, gebaseerd op de HIRLAM run van 00 UTC en de overige genoemde modellen en gidsen met bijbehorende runtijd. Uitgifte: 29/09/2019 06.08 LT.

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