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Weer in het nieuws

Storm Forecast Valid: Thu 20 Aug 2020 06:00 to Fri 21 Aug 2020 06:00 UTC

19-08-2020 22:46 | Estofex | m.b.t. 20-08-2020 t/m 21-08-2020

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 20 Aug 2020 06:00 to Fri 21 Aug 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 19 Aug 2020 22:46
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across north Turkey into the Caucasus region mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across southern Belarus, western Ukraine, and Romania mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued across Ireland, Wales, and south-western England mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across the south-eastern North Sea and Denmark mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential is present across eastern Europe, with two vort-maxima across southern Scandinavia and the Black Sea. A moist and unstable air mass is situated along a frontal boundary from northern Scandinavia to the southern Baltic States and farther towards Bulgaria into the Black Sea and Caucasus region. Especially the southern parts of this unstable air will also sea significant shear at the southern edge of the trough.

Western Europe is influenced by an intense Atlantic trough with a high-shear, low-CAPE environment over the British Isles and a warm air advection regime with elevated storms across the North Sea. Downstream, mid-level ridging affects most of southern and central Europe.

DISCUSSION

British Isles

A high-shear, low-CAPE situations is expected across the western British Isles today. East of a strong low-pressure system across the Atlantic, a very strong flow with 30 m/s wind speed at 850 hPa overlaps with a plume of moist and rather warm maritime air ahead of a cold front. Destabilization is forecast across Ireland due to some diurnal heating and showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Especially storms that can stay isolated for some time can produce tornadoes given very strong low-level shear and weak cold pool potential.

In the evening and night, a mid-level front moves north-east from the Bay of Biscay, providing some stretching of the moist air mass. Models agree on some low-level CAPE and storms spreading into south-western England and Wales. These storms may also be capable of some tornadoes in the strongly-sheared environment. Confidence in surface-based storms decreases farther away from the shores where models predict less low-level moisture.

North-Sea

A plume of warm air spreads north-east ahead of the west-European trough. Steep lapse rates spread across the warm-air advection regime with rich low-level moisture along the cool side of the warm front. Models indicate that elevated CAPE forms over the North Sea. Current thinking is that isolated storms form agead of the approaching cold front across France that intensify in the warm air advection regime across the North Sea. Although these storms will likely stay elevated, strong vertical wind shear supports rapidly moving, possible bowing lines of storms, capable of some severe wind gusts. Storms may reach Denmark and southern Norway on Friday morning.

(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen zijn opgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)

Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)

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